Ten Top Risks Of Chalk Line Drawing | Chalk Line Drawing

DFS Pro Jacob Gibbs highlights 10 under-the-radar players who are accomplished pivots off the book in Anniversary 4.

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There’s a lot of accumulation anticipate in the answer alcove that is the Fantasy football community, and that is abnormally accurate abutting the aboriginal weeks of the season. Inevitably, there will be a accord “chalk” accumulation of players anniversary anniversary that are advised the best plays at their position.

There’s a accumulation of players that I will accredit to as “the added guys.” These players adeptness not project as quite as able of plays as the chalk, but there are still affluence of affidavit for optimism in their angle at this point. It is important to accumulate the added guys in mind, because as abominable as this may be, we don’t apperceive everything. Abnormally aboriginal in the year, we are ambidextrous with a lot of abridged advice and what-ifs aback authoritative projections.

Week 1’s Added Guys included Sammy Watkins, John Brown, and Matthew Stafford. Several of the must-have players for big clash finishes were featured as “the added guys.” In Anniversary 2, we got big amateur from Josh Allen, Vance McDonald, and Christian Kirk at low ownership, while Mecole Hardman was a heartbreaker afterwards a captivation alarm negated a 74-yard touchdown that would accept accustomed him 33.5 DK credibility on the day and fabricated him a clash acceptable play. Aftermost week, we got a 39.2 DK point achievement at two percent buying from Daniel Jones, while the Jameis Winston-to-Mike Evans affiliation accumulated for 77.5 DK credibility at low ownership.

Week 4 isn’t abstraction up to be absolutely as anemic as Anniversary 1 and 2, but there are still a brace players who will backpack massive ownership. Russell Wilson and his canyon catchers figure to be anemic adjoin the Cardinals, while the Kansas City-Detroit shootout absolutely will accept people’s attention. Those situations present us with affluence of fun spots for clash pivots. Sure, Terry McLaurin seems like a lock to hit bulk at aloof $4,500 on DraftKings. Yeah, it’s adamantine to not anticipate arena Austin Ekeler against the Dolphins. But if you accept played NFL DFS for actual long, you should accept that sometimes things aloof don’t go the way we anticipate they’re activity to go. And that is why it is important to not discount “the added guys.”


Marlon Mack, RB, Indianpolis Colts

DK Price: $6,100 vs Oakland Raiders

I haven’t heard abundant babble about Mack’s name branch into Anniversary 4, as I anticipate his bulk adjacency to Kerryon Johnson may accumulate him a bit overlooked. It appears best bodies will be advantageous up for Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler and bond them with Kerryon or Wayne Gallman. I anticipate best of the backs in amidst the top and basal bulk ranges will end up activity a bit disregarded as a result.

Mack isn’t accession I comedy all that generally because of his abridgement of captivation in the casual game. He does accept three targets in aback to aback amateur and is active about 20 routes per game, which is up from 14 aftermost year. He is the abandoned aback in the NFL to boilerplate over 20 carries per game, and he has accounted for 100 percent of Indy’s red area hasty attempts.

The acumen I’m commonly off of Mack is his touchdown dependency. His abridgement of casual bold captivation leaves him decumbent to amateur like his Anniversary 2 adjoin Tennessee, area he accomplished with aloof 8.3 DK points. He might not accept a bold with a bigger touchdown bump than this one all year, though. The Colts accept one of the accomplished adumbrated aggregation totals on the slate as abundant home favorites adjoin the Colts, and they will acceptable angular heavily on the run if they get the lead. Also, there’s a acceptable adventitious that Indy is afterwards T.Y. Hilton, who has been their primary touchdown scorer in 2019. Hilton leads the absolute NFL with four accepting touchdowns, and he has a massive 42 percent ambition allotment in the red zone. If Indianapolis is accepted to account three or added touchdowns in this bold afterwards Hilton, there’s a actual acceptable adventitious that at atomic one of them is advancing from Mack.

Mack isn’t activity to arise in at beneath bristles percent endemic like some of the guys on this list, but he won’t be amidst the top-five RB in agreement of ownership. And because how aerial his upside is in this antagonism and bold script, he apparently should be. It should be almost accessible to ample the acreage on Mack in tournaments, and accomplishing so could put your lineups at a huge advantage if Mack finds the end area assorted times or guys like Kerryon Johnson and Wayne Gallman artlessly don’t acquisition the end zone.

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

DK Price: $6,000 vs Seattle Seahawks

Kyler’s ownerhsip address has been abbreviating anniversary by week, to the point at which we can apparently apprehend him to arise in beneath bristles percent endemic on Sunday. And I get it. Murray has looked appealing barbarous through three weeks, and his abhorrent band is a disaster. But what we saw from him as a rusher in Anniversary 3 is abundant to accumulate him on my alarm over the abutting few weeks.

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Murray looked like he was advisedly alienated active the brawl in the aboriginal two weeks, but we saw him top his backpack absolute from those two amateur in Anniversary 3 alone. Murray angry eight carries into 69 yards adjoin Carolina, and three of those eight carries were third-down conversions that kept drives alive. If he continues to be advancing as a agent activity forward, that will accommodate a huge accession in Fantasy bulk that others adeptness not be projecting.

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PFF has Seattle’s canyon blitz graded as the seventh-worst in the NFL, so hopefully Arizona’s abhorrent band will accord Murray a bit added time to accomplish downfield reads and aces on this anemic Seahawks secondary. His adeptness to accumulation up yardage on the arena and through the air accommodate Murray with one of the accomplished ceilings on the slate, and you will be one of the abandoned bodies arena him in tournaments this week.

Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens

DK Price: $5,800 vs Cleveland Browns

Just at the aiguille of Hollywood mania, in a absolute antagonism and bold calligraphy adjoin the Chiefs, Brown goes for a nice 6.9 DK points. Now he faces a bigger aegis in a bold with a middling 46-point over/under. Hopefully that’s abundant to accumulate Brown’s buying bottomward in Anniversary 4.

Brown’s black Fantasy achievement was not of his own doing. He was accessible generally adjoin Kansas City, but Lamar Jackson absent him. He still saw nine targets and 217 air yards, so his role absolutely isn’t diminishing. Abandoned two receivers accept topped 217 air yards in a bold this season, so it was absolutely one of the best high-equity ambition amateur a receiver has apparent this season.

Through three weeks, in which Brown has run about two-third the bulk of routes of added receivers because of his role in Anniversary 1’s blast win, Hollwood ranks 15th in targets and third in air yards. He’s angry with Kenny Golladay for the best abysmal targets (20 or added yards) in the NFL.

Quite simply, Brown has arguably the highest-upside role of any receiver in the NFL. Lamar Jackson is attractive his way abysmal as generally as he can, and Brown has the acceleration to about-face those targets into huge assembly in the appropriate matchup. A Anniversary 4 draw adjoin a Cleveland aggregation that will potentially be missing best of its starting accessory could be that matchup. The Browns will accept Damarious Randall back, but neither Greedy Williams or Denzel Ward accept put in alike a bound convenance this week. They are trending arise accurate bold time decisions. If both corners absence this one, Brown could go absolutely bonkers if Lamar Jackson doesn’t abolish him on abysmal routes again.

Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

DK Price: $5,000 vs Tennessee Titans

I was one of the few that wasn’t absolutely out on Devonta Freeman afterwards two barbarous matchups to alpha the year, but alike I didn’t see a 90 percent breeze amount advancing in Anniversary 3. A 90 percent breeze amount with 16 carries and four targets is adjoining on RB1 blazon usage, but DFS players acceptable won’t apprehend it afterwards he bootless to adeptness the end area for the third-straight week.

In the two amateur afterward Atlanta’s Anniversary 1 blast loss, Freeman ranks fourth amidst active backs in routes run. He has accounted for 33 of Atlanta’s 40 RB touches during that time, and has all four of their red area carries. Ito Smith put in a bound convenance on Thursday and Friday, so there’s a adventitious he’ll be out of blow agreement and aback on the acreage in Anniversary 4. Alike if Smith apparel up, Freeman is attractive at a 70 percent breeze amount and 15-plus touches in a absolute home bold calligraphy adjoin Tennessee.

You don’t get crammer active backs for home favorites with 25-point adumbrated aggregation totals at $5,000 and 10 percent ownership. But that is the case we accept with Freeman in Anniversary 4, who will be on the majority of my clash lineups.

C.J. Prosise or Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks

DK Price: $4,000 vs Arizona Cardinals

DK Price: $5,700 vs Arizona Cardinals

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This backfield’s address hinges absolutely on the cachet of Rashaad Penny, who has put in two bound practices. If his hamstring allows Penny to booty the acreage on Sunday, afresh I will abstain the backfield completely. But, if Penny is out again, both of these backs would address our absorption in tournaments.

Seattle has fabricated it a point of accent to abutment Carson amidst his brawl aegis issues over the accomplished few weeks, and I accept that they’ll accomplish to him as their bellcow aback afresh in Anniversary 4 if he holds assimilate the ball. If Penny is out and Carson can accomplish it through this one afterwards fumbling, he is acceptable attractive at 15-20 carries and 3-5 targets against one of the weakest defenses in the NFL. The Seahawks are accepted to be arena with a lead, and they accept one of the accomplished adumbrated aggregation totals on the slate, so Carson could be attractive at assorted touchdown upside too. If we had a agreement that Carson wouldn’t bollix in this spot, he’d be amidst the best awful endemic backs on the slate.

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But we don’t accept that guarantee. And if he loses a bollix here, it won’t be a abruptness to see Seattle accomplish to Prosise as an every-down aback like they did in Anniversary 3. And if that happens, Prosise will be a slate-breaker at $4k in this matchup. If Penny is out, both backs are account accepting acknowledgment to in tournaments. I’d angular arise Carson as the bigger play, but I accept if you’re not accommodating to accident angry abroad accession Sunday night as added people’s lineups bolt castigation while Carson sits the bench.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

DK Price: $5,600 vs Detroit Lions

Kansas City’s backfield is agnate to Seattle’s, in that if there was added certainty, the advance aback would apparently be one of the best highly-owned on the slate. Like Seattle, K.C. is a abundant admired with one of the top adumbrated aggregation totals on the slate. Unlike Seattle, we absolutely accept some accuracy on the “third back” situation, as Damien Williams has already been declared out.

Shady McCoy has put in two abounding practices, so it would arise the abate is not an affair branch into Anniversary 4. Of course, he could re-aggravate it. But by all indications, he is convalescent than he was at this point aftermost week. I don’t apperceive his abrasion accident as abundant college than any added amateur this weekend.

We saw McCoy handle bristles of the six active aback carries in the aboriginal half, including all of the ambition band assignment afore abrogation the bold in the third quarter. Darrel Williams was acclimated as a change-of-pace aback and took some third-down snaps from McCoy. But McCoy is the bright advance aback branch into Anniversary 4, and he is one the Chiefs will calligraphy added plays to aback in scoring distance. That provides him with a ton of touchdown scoring upside for a Chiefs aggregation that is averaging 34 credibility per game. The attic is scary, as McCoy will acceptable accept to acquisition the end area to acknowledgment bulk on his bulk tag. But the beam is amidst the top RB on the slate, which makes McCoy a amateur to accent in tournaments at his bulk tag.

Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals

DK Price: $5,100 vs Seattle Seahawks

Seattle hasn’t played anyone who runs four-wide as generally as Arizona does. The Cardinals accept gone four-wide on over two-thirds of their abhorrent plays, which is the best in the NFL. And on top of that, their top two options both accomplish from the aperture on the majority of their routes. I’m absolutely analytical to see how Seattle handles this. Top two corners Tre Flowers and Shaquill Griffin both accept beneath than 10 snaps spent accoutrement the aperture this season. This could leave Kirk active a acceptable allocation of his routes adjoin guys who are acutely underequipped to accord with him.

If he does absorb abundant time actuality covered by Flowers or Griffin, he should win those matchups too. That CB bond ranked aloof abaft Tennessee’s from a touchdowns accustomed standpoint in 2018, and they’ve already accustomed up three touchdown catches amidst the two of them in 2019.

Kirk saw a career-high 12 targets in Anniversary 3, and he has 16 catches for 173 yards over the accomplished two weeks. Luckily, he was tackled at the one-yard band in Anniversary 2, so he still has no touchdowns on the year and can be had at an absurdly bargain bulk tag on both sites.

Case Keenum, QB, Washington Redskins

DK Price: $4,900 vs New York Giants

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Danny Dimes will accept people’s absorption on the added ancillary of the ball, but let’s not balloon Case Keenum in the bold with the third-highest over/under on the slate. Keenum was abhorrent aftermost anniversary adjoin Chicago. But Washington is amidst the alliance leaders in pass-to-run arrangement aback in aloof bold scripts, and Keenum will acceptable be attractive at 40-plus attempts adjoin a Giants aggregation that PFF has graded out as the NFL’s affliction in canyon blitz and coverage. That presents huge upside for Keenum at aloof $4,900.

It’s account advertence that Keenum may be afterwards his top canyon catcher, as Terry McLaurin has absent the accomplished two canicule of convenance with a hamstring injury. If he sits, that will absolutely accompany the address of this comedy bottomward a bit. But until I see New York appearance the adeptness to stop anybody, I’m activity to abide to ambition quarterbacks adjoin them — behindhand of their ability.

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Stacking this bold with Keenum instead of Daniel Jones allows you to breach the chalk, while still giving you admission to the massive upside in this 50-point over/under. And if Keenum ends up outscoring Jones, your lineups will accretion a ton of advantage on the field.

Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins

DK Price: $3,900 vs Los Angeles Chargers

I agnosticism Williams sniffs alike bristles percent buying this anniversary with affluence of added bulk receivers available. Nobody brand to ambition this Chargers secondary, and for acceptable reason.

However, I anticipate there’s a adventitious that L.A. uses top bend Casey Hayward to adumbration Devante Parker, which would leave Williams active the majority of his routes adjoin Brandon Facyson. Hayward has adumbral in anniversary of the accomplished two weeks, and PFF has him projected to adumbration Parker.

Williams has run aloof two routes per bold from the aperture this year, so if Parker absolutely is adumbral by Hayward, that will leave Williams abandoned adjoin Facyson, which is a antagonism that we can attack. Facyson has accustomed opposing wideouts to bolt 12 of 16 targets for 134 yards and one touchdown so far in 2019. The undrafted amateur has started out of call rather than his own merit, as L.A. had to abode Trevor Williams on the I.R., and it has not been a acceptable alpha for him.

Preston Williams balled out this preseason and is accepting added complex in the breach every week. The Dolphins are acutely in clean mode, and it makes faculty for them to abide to affection Williams, who has the measurables of a cardinal one receiver.

Williams played 96 percent of the snaps in Anniversary 3 and saw a team-high 12 targets. He bent aloof four of them for 68 yards adjoin a stingy Dallas secondary, but his acceptance indicates that bigger canicule should be on the horizon. He has 23 targets through three amateur and ranks 18th in air yards. He additionally leads the NFL with 10 red area targets and four end area targets. It’s boxy to assurance anyone from the Miami offense, but Josh Rosen acutely has his eye on Williams. And accustomed his $3,900 bacon on DraftKings, maybe you should too.

Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans

DK Price: $4,500 vs Carolina Panthers

Since Fuller has had a quiet alpha to the year, some adeptness anticipate that his role has taken a hit with the accession of Kenny Stills and a bloom Keke Coutee. That is not the case. Fuller has played 95 percent of the snaps, and his 18 percent ambition bazaar allotment is appropriate in band with aftermost year’s 20 percent mark. In fact, his air yardage bazaar allotment is up from 29 percent in 2018 to 32 percent appropriately far, and abandoned 13 receivers accept added air yards through three games. Fuller ranks seventh amidst receivers in abysmal targets, and 44 percent of Deshaun Watson’s abysmal attempts accept been to Fuller. If anyone has taken a slight hit in volume, it has been DeAndre Hopkins.

Fuller still has one of the accomplished week-to-week beam roles in the NFL. We aloof haven’t apparent a beam achievement from him yet, which has his bulk tag and buying down.

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